Daily Cumulative Cases by Type (Global)

Daily Cumulative Cases by Type (Global)

Daily Cumulative Cases

Daily Cumulative Cases by State

Daily Cumulative Cases by Type (Malaysia only)

Daily New Confirmed Cases (SEA)

Cases Distribution by Type (SEA)

Daily New Death Cases in Malaysia

SIR Model Malaysia

Disclaimer

A typical pandemic occurs as the sequence below:

? Before the pandemic, S is equal to the number of populations as there are no anti-bodies available.

? At the start of the pandemic, S decreases by 1 and I increase by 1 as soon as the first cases of infection is detected.

? The first infected individual continues to infect other susceptible individuals.

? The cycle continues, as more infected cases rise as a result of infecting susceptible individuals before they recovers.

Our reproduction number is 1.055871. This is lower due to the fact the number of cases stayed constantly near to 1 since the pandemic. The R0 of 1.05 means that on average in Malaysia, 1.05 persons are being infected from the spread.

Using the model to fit the first 340 days of outbreak (25th of January - 30th December) against the confirmed cases in Malaysia to identify the outcome. As seen in the graph, the predicted data matches quite closely with the actual data which is rather terrifying as RMCO is still in implementation.

With these rather very naive predictions, if no public health interventions were made, the peak of the COVID-19 in Malaysia is expected to be reached by around January with around 22,636 infected people.

These predictions should be taken with a lot of caution. They are based on very naive and rather unrealistic assumptions eg no public health interventions such as curfews, wearing of masks, mass testing and isolation have been implemented. They also assume a fixed reproduction number R0.

Protect yourself and others from COVID-19

WHO advice for Public

What to do to keep yourself and others safe from COVID-19

Maintain at least a 1-meter distance between yourself and others to reduce your risk of infection when they cough, sneeze or speak. Maintain an even greater distance between yourself and others when indoors. The further away, the better.

Make wearing a mask a normal part of being around other people. The appropriate use, storage and cleaning or disposal are essential to make masks as effective as possible.

Here are the basics of how to wear a mask:

• Clean your hands before you put your mask on, as well as before and after you take it off, and after you touch it at any time.

• Make sure it covers both your nose, mouth and chin.

• When you take off a mask, store it in a clean plastic bag, and every day either wash it if it’s a fabric mask, or dispose of a medical mask in a trash bin.

• Don’t use masks with valves.

How to make your environment safer

Avoid the 3Cs: spaces that are closed, crowded or involve close contact. - Outbreaks have been reported in restaurants, choir practices, fitness classes, nightclubs, offices and places of worship where people have gathered, often in crowded indoor settings where they talk loudly, shout, breathe heavily or sing.

• The risks of getting COVID-19 are higher in crowded and inadequately ventilated spaces where infected people spend long periods of time together in close proximity. These environments are where the virus appears to spread by respiratory droplets or aerosols more efficiently, so taking precautions is even more important.

Meet people outside. Outdoor gatherings are safer than indoor ones, particularly if indoor spaces are small and without outdoor air coming in.

Avoid crowded or indoor settings but if you can’t, then take precautions:

• Open a window. Increase the amount of ‘natural ventilation’ when indoors.

Don’t forget the basics of good hygiene

Regularly and thoroughly clean your hands with an alcohol-based hand rub or wash them with soap and water. This eliminates germs including viruses that may be on your hands.

Avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth. Hands touch many surfaces and can pick up viruses. Once contaminated, hands can transfer the virus to your eyes, nose or mouth. From there, the virus can enter your body and infect you.

Cover your mouth and nose with your bent elbow or tissue when you cough or sneeze. Then dispose of the used tissue immediately into a closed bin and wash your hands. By following good ‘respiratory hygiene’, you protect the people around you from viruses, which cause colds, flu and COVID-19.

Clean and disinfect surfaces frequently especially those which are regularly touched, such as door handles, faucets and phone screens.

What to do if you feel unwell

Know the full range of symptoms of COVID-19. The most common symptoms of COVID-19 are fever, dry cough, and tiredness. Other symptoms that are less common and may affect some patients include loss of taste or smell, aches and pains, headache, sore throat, nasal congestion, red eyes, diarrhoea, or a skin rash.

Stay home and self-isolate even if you have minor symptoms such as cough, headache, mild fever, until you recover. Call your health care provider or hotline for advice. Have someone bring you supplies. If you need to leave your house or have someone near you, wear a medical mask to avoid infecting others.

If you have a fever, cough and difficulty breathing, seek medical attention immediately. Call by telephone first, if you can and follow the directions of your local health authority.

Keep up to date on the latest information from trusted sources, such as WHO or your local and national health authorities. Local and national authorities and public health units are best placed to advise on what people in your area should be doing to protect themselves.